Economic Crisis Ahead? J.P. Morgan Flags 60% Recession Threat
- JPMorgan Escalates Recession Warning, Hikes Odds to 60% from 40%
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S&P Global and Goldman Sachs Join Chorus, Sound Alarms Over Rising U.S. Recession Risk
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Barclays, Bank of America, and Deutsche Bank Ring the Alarm Bells on Surging Recession Threats
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RBC and UBS Slash S&P 500 Year-End Forecasts Amid Mounting Economic Fears
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Brokerages Brace for Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts as Tariff Tensions Fuel Economic Uncertainty
J.P. Morgan has increased the probability of a global recession by the end of the year to 60%, up from its previous estimate of 40%. The bank cites escalating trade tensions and shifting U.S. policy dynamics as key factors behind the revision.
According to J.P. Morgan, a new wave of tariffs could significantly undermine investor and business confidence, challenging the perception that the Trump administration remains supportive of pro-business policies.
Additionally, potential disruptions in key sectors of the North American economy—stemming from stricter trade and immigration measures—are likely to add further strain.
The bank also warns that the Federal Reserve may have limited flexibility to offset these shocks, especially if near-term inflation expectations continue to rise. This combination of tightening policy space and weakening sentiment increases the risk of a downturn in the coming months.